Statistics Canada has dramatically lowered its canola production estimate for 2024.

This latest estimate is based on a November survey of Canadian farmers while previous reports in July and August were based on remote sensing and agroclimate data:

There has been a great deal of debate and speculation regarding the final canola production number. Provincial crop reports pegged canola yields much lower than the Stats Can model which had total canola production at 19 million tonnes. Now, Stats Can is reporting just 17.8 million tonnes, 7 per cent lower than last year. Yields are estimated at 35.6 bushels per acre in Alberta, 35.9 in Saskatchewan and 37.1 in Manitoba.

While the trade was anticipating a drop in the Stats Can numbers, 17.8 million tonnes is at the lower end of expectations. Less supply should be supportive for prices, but tariff and trade worries are likely to limit upside price potential.