The new crop year begins this Thursday, August 1. The 2024-25 crop year is expected to see significant price declines for most crops.
In fact, wheat and flax are the only crops where prices are forecast to be a bit better.
The Market Analysis Group within Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada issues regular outlooks for the principal field crops grown in this country. The price predictions are an average for the entire crop year. With the 2023-24 crop year nearly over when their July 22 report was issued, it’s reasonable to expect those forecasted prices to be very close to the real numbers.
For the year ahead, all sorts of events could happen to change the outlook, but the price forecasts appear credible based on the information currently available.
The average price of spring wheat is expected to be $5/tonne better than last crop year. As well, flaxseed continues to show some strength with the price prediction improved by $35 a tonne as compared to last year.
That’s the end of the good news. AAFC is expecting the average price of durum to fall from $430 a tonne last crop year to just $350 a tonne in the new crop year.
Feed barley prices have been soft and are expected to get even softer with the new crop average price slipping by $20 a tonne, the lowest in three years. Oats are expected to be lower by $40 a tonne, the lowest in four years.
The average price for canola is forecast $25 a tonne lower. We sometimes see price moves of nearly that much in just a day’s time. No doubt there will be better than average pricing opportunities from time to time, but the AAFC analysis is based on the price midpoint.
The news isn’t good in pulse and specialty crops either. The average price of peas is expected to be down by $35 a tonne. However, green and maple peas have been priced much higher than yellows.
The average price of lentils encompassing both red and green types is pegged at $830 a tonne in the new crop year, down dramatically from the $1010 a tonne posted for last year. The chickpea price forecast is down $125 a tonne.
Canary seed is down $155 a tonne with mustard price expectations crashing by a monstrous $370 a tonne.
Some producers are expecting better crops than last year and that will help compensate for the expected price drops.
