A canola analyst with PI Financial says Agriculture Canada’s 2023-24 canola production estimate is pessimistic.

It is forecasting 18.4 million tonnes, only slightly bigger than last year’s disappointing crop of 18.17 million tonnes.

Ken Ball is surprised with how low their projection is.

Ball has seen private sector estimates calling for a crop in excess of 20 million tonnes if there is decent precipitation in June and July.

The United States Department of Agriculture’s forecast is also at odds with Agriculture Canada’s.

It anticipates a Canadian crop of 20.3 million tonnes, which would be nearly two million tonnes bigger than Agriculture Canada’s estimate.

That is a substantial discrepancy.

The good news is that Ball anticipates plenty of demand for the upcoming crop.

There will be some new crush capacity coming online in 2023-24 and crush margins remain healthy.